"Chinese Aggression at Sea Threatens Military Members – Here's What You NEED to Know!"
Repeating an aggressive action four times shows intent. In February 2022, a Chinese warship aimed a dangerous laser at an Australian Defense Force aircraft. In June 2022, a Chinese air force fighter plane dropped chaff in front of an ADF patrol jet, endangering it.
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It is no surprise that Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles publicly voiced his country's concerns about these actions at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. In the near future, Defense Force Commander General Angus Campbell was equally vocal.
China has been formed. This year the Chinese Coast Guard, a branch of the military, used high-powered water cannons against Philippine ships, damaging them and causing injuries among the crew.
The attack on the Philippine ship came as a four-nation meeting was underway in Hawaii to discuss China's increasingly hostile actions in the South China Sea. Rather than being deterred by collective concerns, China has stepped up its actions.
It now stands to reason that gray zone actions by the Chinese military in the near future may seriously injure, or even kill, Australian military personnel. It is time for the Australian government to not only express its concerns publicly, but also plan possible responses.
Events like this will trigger considerable public unrest. The government would be better off addressing these concerns through timely leadership rather than being led by public anger. Australia's relationship with China is critical and a thoughtful response is essential.
Most importantly, to try to deter China, the government needs to ensure the Chinese government and military are aware of Australia's reaction. China may be making a misunderstanding as its actions so far have only been met with verbal rebukes.
The idea that “the East is rising and the West is declining” is very popular in China and is being pushed by its leaders. Arrogance rules. To determine China's attitude, a real threat of punishment is needed.
The Australian government will probably consider a range of options to adjust its response to China's provocations.First, Britain and other countries now expel Russian diplomatic staff when Russia commits hostile acts in their countries.
China has a large diplomatic presence in Australia particularly at its consulate in the state capital. For example, the consulate in Brisbane has 14 diplomatic staff while in Sydney it has 32 staff.
The dismissal of some consulate staff was a message, but kept diplomatic channels open.
Second, economic measures can be taken. This may include banning Chinese investment in Australia, although this figure is already declining.
Such a ban could be targeted at state-owned companies. In addition, problems may occur with the operations of nine Chinese airlines flying to Australia. Nationalization of special Chinese assets in Australia, such as the port of Darwin, is a possibility worth considering at that time.
Third, implementing selective trade sanctions. When China imposed trade sanctions on Australia, it did not stop buying Australian iron ore or natural gas, suggesting that restrictions on these commodities may worry Chinese leaders.
These actions need to be coordinated with like-minded partners, so that other countries do not take Australia's place in situations like this.
Fourth, China's leadership continues to worry about new multilateral organizations concerned with defense and security.
They have long expressed concerns about the possibility of an “Asian NATO”, although no country has ever suggested this. However, there are smaller multilateral steps that may be taken in response to China's violent military actions.
Australia could warn Beijing that it will take action to revive the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) created in 1954–77. SEATO involves the US's alliance treaty partners, has a Secretary General, a multinational council, economic, security, and information committees.
and a small military planning staff that conducts contingency planning and organizes multinational military exercises.Such threats will only be futile if they are not supported by the alliance's other treaty partners: the United States, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and perhaps Thailand.
Australian diplomacy could first seek support in principle. Gaining multinational support would also send a strong deterrent signal to Beijing that its gray zone actions need to be nonviolent.
Such support may be readily available because China's violent actions can be carried out individually against personnel from those partner countries, so agreeing on a collective stance before such violence could be reassuring.
The latter option highlights that China's increasing aggression is an international concern. The exact response to actions by Chinese military forces in the gray zone that injure or kill Australian military personnel will be determined by the Australian government at that time.
However, given the current issues, ensuring China is aware that such actions will have real impacts, and gaining anticipatory diplomatic support internationally would be beneficial.
Hopefully, this will cause China to become more ruthless as demonstrated by its gray zone actions and current worsening trends. Australia's actions now can prevent real problems in the future.
Dr Peter Layton is a Visiting Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute, an Associate Fellow at RUSI (UK) and a Fellow at the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group.
A retired RAAF Group Captain, Peter has extensive experience in force structure development and teaching national security strategy at the US National Defense University.
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