"WARNING: Toxic wildfire smoke from Canada is spreading to the US - Find out how to protect yourself NOW!"

 Dozens of forest fires burned across Canada in May 2024 and again sent unhealthy smoke blowing into northern America. At the same time, the southeastern region is receiving smoke from Mexico, where drought conditions have fueled fires. Last year, Canada's largest wildfire season in 2023 introduced millions of Americans across the Midwest and northeastern states to the health dangers of wildfire smoke, with air quality warnings reaching levels never seen there before. 

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Professional baseball games were postponed and skies in New York City turned orange with haze, sometimes exposing millions of people to some of the world's worst air quality. In some areas, the smoke lingered for days. The pressing question on many people's minds: “Is this the new normal?” From our perspective as air quality scientists, we think the answer is likely “yes.”

Global warming means more fires Hotter and drier conditions, coupled with dry grass and brush accumulated over decades of fire suppression, have made large wildfires more common. Canada is experiencing its second consecutive extremely dry year in 2024, and is also facing a resurgence of fires burning underground during the winter. 

On May 12-14, 2024, smoke from fires in British Columbia and Alberta reached unhealthy levels from Montana to Wisconsin and began spreading south and east into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

The North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Forecast for May through July highlights dry conditions in western Canada and Central America as well as higher than normal fire risks in both regions. The report also notes the challenges in estimating fire risk later this year as the El Niño to La Niña climate pattern transitions in late summer. 

Computer simulations of the future in a warming climate show that there will be more smoky days, higher concentrations of smoke, larger areas burned, and higher carbon emissions from fires – further fueling climate change. States and the Forest Service can use fire regulations and forest thinning to help reduce the number and intensity of fires, but smoke exposure still tends to increase as temperatures rise and humidity levels change. In short, people need to learn to live with forest fire smoke. It's not every year, but it will happen more often. Luckily, there are some tools and strategies for managing a smokier future.

Prepare for smoky days Managing the risk of wildfire smoke starts with making smart personal choices. Think of a smoke wave like a heat wave: A smoke wave is easier to deal with if you're prepared and know it's coming. This means paying attention to weather forecasts and providing masks, air monitors, and clean air shelters. Inhaling particles and chemicals in wildfire smoke can worsen asthma, worsen respiratory and heart problems, and make people more susceptible to respiratory infections. People caring for individuals who are sensitive to smoke, such as young children and older adults, need to plan specifically for their needs.

To prepare, read the risks and warning signs from public health experts. Living through wildfire smoke can mean using air filtration devices, wearing an N95 or KN95 mask on bad days, changing travel patterns and outdoor activity schedules, and changing household ventilation choices. What schools and communities can do Living in a smoky environment also requires changes to the way schools, businesses, apartment buildings, and government buildings operate. 

Schools can start by setting thresholds for canceling outdoor activities and ensuring staff are prepared to meet the needs of children with asthma. Building managers may need to rethink air filtering and ventilation and use air quality sensors. Communities also need emergency plans for festivals and recreation areas, as well as regulations for businesses to protect outdoor workers.

Decisions about how to deal with smoke can be complicated. For example, choosing an air purifier can be a daunting task, with more than 900 products on the market. The effectiveness of various smoke management interventions is not well known and may vary depending on the details of their application, such as the fit of the mask to the wearer's face, whether exterior doors and windows are tightly closed, and whether filters are installed correctly and changed frequently enough. 

Improve smoke monitoring and forecasting The US has an extensive air quality monitoring and forecasting system to help provide early warning. It uses ground-based air quality monitors, satellite remote sensing systems to detect smoke and fires, and computer systems that correlate observations with wind, chemistry and weather. This is complemented by expert guidance from meteorologists. However, for most people trying to make decisions about the safety of outdoor activities, current forecasting systems are lacking. This is especially true when smoke originates from remote fire locations, or when smoke emission rates change rapidly and complex wind patterns cause conflicting forecasts and advice.

Several important improvements will greatly aid practical decision making around wildfire smoke. More accurate 10-day forecasts and neighborhood-level forecasts will help communities plan ahead. Combining seasonal weather forecasts of precipitation, humidity, and wind with satellite assessments of fire fuel conditions can also improve emergency planning. Maintaining a strong air quality monitoring network is also important. However, state and local government agencies have reduced the number of ground monitors by about 10% from their peak in 2001. 

Smoke estimates from satellites and low-cost portable sensors can help, but they will work best if they can be cross-calibrated to lower levels. . a well-maintained network of high-accuracy monitors. We still have a lot to learn More effective adaptation to smoke requires more research to better understand the impacts of repeated exposure to wildfire smoke and the combined hazards that arise when smoke occurs simultaneously with other challenges, such as extreme heat. 

Community responses, such as providing clean air shelters – the equivalent of cooling centers in very hot weather – are gaining attention, but there is little guidance on what constitutes a clean air shelter and where and when they should be used. Living with cigarette smoke is now a new reality that people in most parts of North America must face again this year, and prepare to face it in the future.

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